Another week - and other rally. Gold, oil and the hard assets we follow have particularly been strong.
However it is a time to be nimble and be aware of several scenarios that may be unfolding. First is that an imminent steep reversal is in the works, and soon. (see chart below for our explanation). Another idea is that after a brief reversal, we see a summer rally bringing us up to the Elliot wave price target before a more serious reversal ensues. There are of course multiple other scenarios but the bottom line is - confusion is the order of the day. Who do you believe? Well for us - it's the indicators.

Before we go on, lets just review the current weekly chart of the S&P:



Looking at this cloud chart, we can see the overall weekly price action has stalled. So it's possible we are in a phase where an imminent move up or down is possible. The elliotwave target is shown which is 1100. This would bring the prices up through the cloud (neutral) and to the top of the cloud by summers end. Notice how the cloud is thickening. If the prices reverse look for the bottom edge of the cloud to be support. Anything below that could signal a big downturn.

The S&P currently is still in a BUY and HOLD mode, and has been that way since 3/20.

Our system posted HOLD . The previous BUY recommendation that was confirmed was made on 03.20.2009 (70) days ago, when the index value was 758.8 . Since then SP500 has gained 21.12% . 

GOLD/SILVER




GLD is over the cloud once again and is approaching the previous high is 98.99. The commentators are all over the place, saying a major reversal OR a major breakout is imminent. Some bulls argue that 3rd times a charm theory that says the 3rd attempt to break 1000 will be the the one that succeeds. We'll know soon enough. Even the Elliotwavers concede that 1017 in gold will be the critical test. If gold fails then our chart above shows 825-850 as a major resistance zone . Elliotwave lists 680 as the worst case scenario (last octobers low).

SLV


SLV has lagged a bit to get through the cloud but has done so inconvincing fashion. Possible short term targets from 16-18. Elliotwave shows the 8.45 area (last Octobers low) as the target should a major reversal take place.




Our current watch list:

The only new signal is DBA which confirmed a buy signal this week. Because of a potential market reversal, we will accumulate over stages.

Ticker Description Signal Week of Price Signal IntraW Prev. Close Change LOST/GAINED ADRE BLDRS EMERGING MKTS 50 IND.. BUY 3/27/2009 28.050 HOLD 34.360 36.000 4.77% 28.34% DEL DBA POWERSHARES DB AGRICULTURE.. SELL 4/9/2009 24.920 BUY 27.650 27.920 0.98% 12.04% DEL DBB POWERSHARES DB BASE METALS.. BUY 5/8/2009 14.600 HOLD 14.410 14.470 0.42% -0.89% DEL DBE POWERSHARES DB ENERGY FUND BUY 5/8/2009 20.170 HOLD 22.080 23.660 7.16% 17.30% DEL FAZ FINANCIAL BEAR 3X SHARES SELL 3/13/2009 104.07 WAIT 5.5600 4.70 -15.47% -95.48% DEL GDX MARKET VECTORS GOLD MINERS.. BUY 5/8/2009 33.650 HOLD 42.060 44.150 4.97% 31.20% DEL GLD STREETTRACKS GOLD TR BUY 4/24/2009 86.030 HOLD 94.100 96.160 2.19% 11.77% DEL HL HECLA MINING CO BUY 3/20/2009 1.5000 HOLD 3.3600 3.7100 10.42% 147.33% DEL IYM ISHARES DJ US BASIC MATERI.. BUY 3/20/2009 32.490 HOLD 43.870 45.949 4.74% 41.42% DEL MOO MARKET VECTORS AGRIBUSINES.. BUY 3/20/2009 27.580 HOLD 36.790 36.940 0.41% 33.94% DEL PHO POWERSHARES WATER RESOURCE BUY 3/27/2009 12.060 HOLD 13.730 14.310 4.22% 18.66% DEL SH PROSHARES TRUST SHORT S&P .. SELL 3/20/2009 81.810 WAIT 68.550 65.820 -3.98% -19.55% DEL SLV ISHARES SILVER TRUST BUY 4/24/2009 11.900 HOLD 14.500 15.470 6.69% 30.00% DEL SLW SILVER WHEATON CP BUY 5/8/2009 7.8500 HOLD 9.3400 10.5200 12.63% 34.01% DEL USO US OIL FUND ETF BUY 2/27/2009 24.910 HOLD 33.700 36.400 8.01% 46.13% DEL XLE SECTOR SPDR TRUST ENERGY BUY 3/20/2009 41.500 HOLD 48.610 51.680 6.32% 24.53% DEL