We have potentially 2 bearish positions evolving with active positions -

ADRE - Emerging Market ETF
PHO - Water ETF

While we wait for the signals to be confirmed we are placing 4% protective stops.

GLD and SLV continues to be a touch and go affair. There are still techincal BUY alerts but these alerts have not been confirmed as of yet on a weekly basis.

The silver weekly chart is still in a bearish bias. Notice the thick wall of resistance ahead. With the dollar bouncing the more probably case is for the metal to go down. (the action has dropped beneath the daily chart as well -signaling a bearish phase)



GDX is still showing a wait signal all the way back from January, and in this case it was a very wise move. While there was a short term bounce into march, the price is still below the January sell price of 31.95




Much like SLV - GDX is running into a major wall of resistance. With the bearish price action of the last week the more likelyhood is that we will see a significant leg downward. The side benefit of all these price actions is that eventually a new bottom is made it will be at much more desirable prices.

The latest COT numbers:

Here are the latest Blees COT ratings released on 4/17/09 for some key markets. Remember “100″ is the most extreme bullish position on the part of commercial traders (aka the “smart money”) for the last eighteen months. “0″ is the most extreme bearish position:

S&P 500 Index: 18
S&P E-mini: 66
Dow Industrials: 31
Nasdaq 100: 27
Nasdaq 100 Mini: 41
Gold: 54
Silver: 87
Crude Oil: 59
Copper: 67
Corn: 75
Soybeans: 47
Sugar: 71
Wheat: 76
Cattle: 60
Hogs: 62
U.S. Dollar: 48
Cocoa: 63
Natural Gas: 52

 

So in summary - establish protective stops on ADRE and PHO until stopped out or a bearish confirmation is established. The markets have been rallying for 6 weeks straight so a short term correction of the entire market may come into play.